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Week ahead: recession fears keep bets off ECB tightening

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Week ahead: recession fears keep bets off ECB tightening

Week ahead: recession fears keep bets off ECB tightening

The ECB meets this week amid expectations that a slowdown in the economy may force it to wait until the fourth quarter to hike its deposit rate.

As Pascale Davies also reports, corporate earnings season and Brexit will also be keeping traders busy.


Week ahead: recession fears keep bets off ECB tightening

All eyes return to UK parliament on Monday as Prime Minister Theresa May is expected to present a Brexit plan B, after her original deal negotiated with the EU was voted down last week.

As time is ticking ahead of the UK's departure date, the markets and the British pound continue to prepare for the worst.

(SOUNDBITE) (English) JOACHIM KLEMENT, HEAD OF INVESTMENT RESEARCH, FIDANTE PARTNERS, SAYING: "Sterling will remain in a very volatile time.

I would say sideways a trend given the uncertainty and the absolute impossibility to find a deal within the remaining time until the 29th of March." The EU has already signaled there is little room to amend the Brexit deal.

And the euro zone will have its own additional worries this week.

The ECB governing council meets on Thursday, And is expected to be further away from hiking its deposit rate than even just month ago, according to a Reuters Poll ... Where economists now see a hike in Q4.

The poll also sees the chances of a recession in the bloc have grown- from 20 to 25 percent in December That as last week, Germany- Europe's largest economy- reported its weakest growth rate in five years.

(SOUNDBITE) (English) CHIEF ECONOMIC ADVISER, CEBR, VICKY PRYCE, SAYING "There have been so many warnings already that there was going to be a slowdown in 2019.

I think the markets have sensed that, hence why we have such volatility in some of the markets, particularly the US but also Europe and Asia." More wild swings in European markets are expected as the bloc reports its fourth quarter earnings in the week.

And expectations are low.

According to I/B/E/S Refinitiv, fourth-quarter earnings per share for STOXX 600 companies are expected to have grown by 6 percent.

Less than half the levels seen this time last year.

Excluding the energy sector, that represents an increase of just 3.9 percent.

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