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Monday, 2 August 2021

ROB'S WEATHER FORECAST PART 2 10PM 6-3-2021

Credit: KATC - Arcadiana
Duration: 04:54s 0 shares 4 views
ROB'S WEATHER FORECAST PART 2 10PM 6-3-2021
ROB'S WEATHER FORECAST PART 2 10PM 6-3-2021
ROB'S WEATHER FORECAST PART 2 10PM 6-3-2021

WITH YOUR COMPLETE FORECASTKATC CHIEF METEOROLOGIST ROBPERILLO WELCOME BACK.WELL OUR SOGGY WEATHER PATTERNIS HERE TO STAY AND IT’S GOINGTO STAY AT LEAST FOR ANOTHERFOUR TO FIVE DAYS AND THERE WILLBE GROWING CONCERN IF WECONTINUE TO SEE THIS PATTERN ONTHE THREAD OF SOME LOCALIZED ORAT LEAST ISOLATED FLOODINGISSUES.SO WE’RE GOING TO HAVE TO WATCHTHAT VERY CLOSELY AS WE GET INTOTHE WEEKEND PROVIDED WE SEE THERAIN THAT WE THINK WE’RE GOINGTO SEE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OFDAYS.SO THIS IS A WAY STACKING UPACTUALLY A STACK OF LOW PRESSURESYSTEMS UPPER LEVEL LOWS AS WELOOK AT THE UPPER PARTS OFATMOSPHERE CARVING OUT A DEEPTROUGH.GOES ALL THE WAY DOWN THROUGHMEXICO.WE HAVE TROPICAL MOISTURE AT THESURFACE COMING IN FROM THE GULFAND YOU CAN SEE HOW SHOWERS ANDSTORMS HAVE BEEN REALLYDOMINATING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THELONE STAR STATE EASTERN, TEXASAND SOME OF THAT RAIN OUT COMINGINTO OUR PART OF THE WORLD, BUTIT’S BEEN WET US DOWN ACROSS THETEXAS COAST FROM HOUSTON ALL THEWAY DOWN TO NEAR BROWNSVILLEWHERE FLOOD WATCHES ARE POSTEDFOR THE ADDITIONAL AND YOU GETFLOOD WATCHES DOWN HERE FOR LESSRAIN THAN WHAT WE NORMALLY GETBECAUSE THE RUNOFF ISSUES AREHIGHER HERE, SO THEY HAVE SEEN ACOUPLE OF INCHES OF RAIN ACOUPLE OF INCHES MORE POSSIBLEAND FOR US NO WATCHES YET.BUT BEFORE THE WEEKEND IS DONE,I THINK WE MIGHT BE IN THATFLASH FLOOD WATCH CATEGORY ATTHE VERY LEAST NOW THIS EVENINGAND SEE ALL THE HEAVY RAINS KINDOF ADVANCING OFFSHORE FROM WHERETHEY WERE EARLIER CLOUD TOGROUND LIGHTNING OR THIS CASECLOUT TO WATER LIGHTNING OUT INTHE GULF AND TYPICALLY IN THISTYPE OF TROPICAL PATTERN AND ANUPPER LEVEL PATTERN YOU SEESTORMS FESTERING OFFSHOREOVERNIGHT AND THEN THEY ADVANCEINLAND DURING THE DAY, BUT IFTHERE’S PLENTY OF EXTRA ENERGYTHE ATMOSPHERE YOU’LL SEESHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHTHOURS.AND THAT’S WHERE WE’RE SEEINGRIGHT NOW AT LEAST RIGHT NOWFROM SOME OF THOSE STORMS MOSTLYLIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS FROMEVANGELINE PARISH THROUGH ALLENAND ALSO INTO VERNON AND REPEATSPARISH AND THEN BEAUREGARDPARISH RATHER AND THEN SCATTEREDSHOWERS AND SOME CLOUD-TO-GROUNDLIGHTNING SCENE AROUND THECAMERON AREA JUST OFFSHORE.SO WE’RE GONNA MAINTAIN RAINCHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.IN FACT THE LATEST HER MODELACTUALLY BRINGING A FAIR BIT OFACTIVITY INLAND.WE’RE GOING 40% 40% RIGHT NOW,BUT THAT MAY BE LOW, WE’LL SEEAND THEN TOMORROW WITH DAYTIMEHEATING SCATTERED SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS LIKELYTEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE 70SWITH THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.NOT MUCH RHYME OR REASON TO THEACTIVITY, BUT THE PROBLEM THATWE’RE GOING TO BE UP AGAINST ISTHAT WE’RE GOING TO SEESCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERSAND THUNDER SHOWERS MOVING ALONGBUT PUTTING DOWN LOCALLY HEAVYRAINFALL AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT,POSSIBLY AND THEN GOING INTOSATURDAY.IT LOOKS LIKE WIDESPREADCOVERAGE A GOOD BET.WE’RE GOING 70% TOMORROW 80%SATURDAY BUT COULD EASILY ARGUEFOR 80% TOMORROW AND 90% FORSATURDAY AND IT LOOKS LIKESUNDAY AS WELL.SO WE TAKE A LOOK AT THEEUROPEAN MODEL AND AGAIN ITHONES IN ON THE SHOWERS AND SOMELOCALLY HEAVY STORMS STARTINGSATURDAY AND THEN GOING INTOSUNDAY STILL SOME WET CONDITIONSAND YOU SEE THAT RED.YOU DON’T WANT TO SEE YELLOW ANDRED.THAT MEANS SOME LOCALLY HEAVYRAINFALL PATTERN DOESN’T CHANGEMUCH INTO TUESDAY, BUT THENFINALLY BY WEDNESDAY, IT LOOKSLIKE THINGS MADE TONE DOWN ASHIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO EDGE INFROM THE EAST MOVING TO THE WESTSO HOPEFULLY THAT WILL KNOCK THERAIN CHANCES DOWN FOR THE LATTERPART OF NEXT WEEK AND GOING INTOTHE FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH ANYLUCK FINGERS CROSSED ON THAT NOWAS FOR RAINFALL LET’S TAKE ALOOK AT JUST THE HER MODEL THISJUST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURSNOW EVEN QUITE THAT AND AGAINSOME SPOT NOT CATCHING A WHOLELOT BUT MOST AREAS CATCHINGSEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN, ANDTHERE ARE A FEW FIVE INCH HOTSPOTS OR GREATER THAN THATACROSS THE AREA ANYWHERE FROMEASTERN, LOUISIANA AND THEN BACKTO THE WEST AS WE KIND OF DRAGTHIS OVER YOU SEE SOME OF HOTSPOTS ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINEAS WELL.SO VERY VERY WET PATTERN AND ASWE LOOK AT THE WEATHERPREDICTION CENTERS FORECAST,THIS IS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVENDAYS SO THAT GETS US TO NEXTTHURSDAY.MOST OF THIS HAPPENS THROUGHNEXT WEDNESDAY A BROAD SWATH OFFOUR TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN,AND WE SEE THAT ALSO IN THEEUROPEAN MODEL REALLY SHOWINGTHE RAINFALL FIRST THROUGHSATURDAY SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN,AND THEN MAYBE SOME HOT SPOTS OFFOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OR MOREPOSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS SOUTH,TEXAS THROUGH LOUISIANA SO THESOGGY SAGA CONTINUES.I THINK I SAID TO RIOT GOT ITWRONG EARLIER BEEN WORKING ONTHAT.I LIKE ALLITERATION.ANYWAY WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHTTONIGHT LINGERING SHOWERS,ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL PARISHES,BUT ANYWHERE IN LAND AT 40% 71THE LOW, IT’S HUMID OUT THERE.IT’S GOING TO STAY THAT WAYSWEATY WINDOWS TIME AND THENTOMORROW THAT SOGGY SAGACONTINUES SCATTERED SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS LIKELY RAINCHANCES IN THE 70 TO 80% RANGEAND THIS WEEKEND.WE’RE PROBABLY PUSHING.TO 90% FOR SATURDAY SUNDAY,MAYBE MONDAY AS WELL.STATISTICALLY.WE ALWAYS HAVE TO BRING DOWN THERAIN CHANCES THIS FAR OUTBECAUSE IT’S FARTHER AWAY FIVEDAYS OUT, BUT WE COULD SEE 70 80PERCENT CONTINUING AT LEASTTHROUGH NEXT TUESDAY, BUT TOWARDTHE END OF THE WEEK LOOKINGBETTER WIT

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